Sports betting
Sports betting
Bet when you have a view and the price is right. The margin is in the odds, and shopping around cuts it.
It is the only gambling where what you already know is worth money.
on €50 · Plays longest
€0.46 an hour at €1 a go
How to play it well
The decisions that actually move the number, and the version of the game worth looking for.
- Line shop. The same bet is priced differently at different books, and taking the best price is free value.
- A standard two-way market at -110 carries about 4.55% margin. Tight markets on major sports run under 3%.
- Props and same-game parlays carry much wider margins. They are fun and they are expensive.
- Bankroll in units, not euros. One to two percent per bet keeps a bad run survivable.
- Closing line value — beating the price the market settles at — is the honest measure of whether you are any good.
Where that comes from
How long €50 of play lasts on average, at €1 a hand, spin or roll. Bet more and it scales down by the same amount.
- Return to player
- 95.45%
- Volatility
- High
- Does skill change it?
- Yes — the figure assumes correct play
- Typical minimum
- Around €1 a bet
What the figure assumes
A two-way market priced -110 / -110. Tighter markets run under 3%; props and exotics run considerably higher.
Source: Arithmetic of a -110 / -110 two-way market. Last checked 2026-09-21.
Worth seeking out the good version
The version to look for
€0.46
4.55% edge
Same-game parlays and long-shot props
€1.50
15% edge
Same game, same stake: 109 hrs of play against 33 hrs. Worth two minutes checking which table you are on.
A two-way market priced at -110 on both sides carries a theoretical hold of about 4.55%. That is the bookmaker's margin baked into the price, and it is the equivalent of a house edge.
Unlike a casino game, the margin varies market by market and book by book. Major markets on major sports are priced tightly — sometimes under 3% — while obscure props can run to 10% or worse. Shopping the same bet across two or three books is the closest thing in gambling to a free improvement, and it is usually worth more than any handicapping.
The figure below assumes ten bets in an hour, which is a fast session. Most people bet far fewer, which makes sports betting cheap per hour and the opposite of cheap per bet.
Things worth knowing
- Same-game parlays, where margins compound into double digits
- Boosted odds that still price below fair value
- Not line shopping, which costs more than any bad pick